Hindsight Bias|後見之明偏誤:結果知道之後,過去會被重新感覺成「本來就看得出來」

2026-09-09 判斷與記憶心理學/英語 Association for Psychological Science 查看原文 ↗
WHAT 這是什麼

Hindsight bias refers to the systematic tendency, after learning an outcome, to see that outcome as more foreseeable than it actually was beforehand. Knowing what happened can distort recollection of earlier uncertainty and produce the feeling that one 'knew it all along.'

WHY HERE 為什麼屬於底域的世界

它讓現在的答案反向滲進過去:一旦結局亮起來,我們會低估當時其實有多少岔路仍是開著的。

BLIND SPOT 補了哪一塊少看的視角

後見之明包含記憶、必然感與可預測性等不同成分;承認此偏誤不等於所有事後分析都沒有價值。

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Hindsight Bias後見之明OutcomePredictionMemory